Challenge Probability Calculator
Growth & PerformanceSimulate thousands of trade sequences to estimate your odds of passing a prop firm evaluation.
Risk per trade is calculated as a fixed percentage of your starting balance each trade, not compounded on a floating balance — the same simplification most funded-account rules themselves use. Real trading isn’t purely random, so treat this as a planning estimate, not a guarantee.
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How to use it
Using the Challenge Probability Calculator in 4 steps
- 1Enter your win rate and average risk:reward ratio.
- 2Set your risk per trade, profit target, and max drawdown as a percentage of account.
- 3Set the maximum number of trades allowed in the evaluation window.
- 4Read your odds of passing, breaching drawdown, or running out of trades, from 5,000 simulated trade sequences.
Why it matters
What this does for your trading
- Tests realistic pass odds before you pay for an evaluation, instead of hoping your win rate is enough.
- Shows how drawdown allowance and risk per trade interact — a good win rate can still fail if you're sized too aggressively.
- Turns abstract stats into a concrete probability you can compare across firms or plans.
Settings for this tool
What you can customize via Settings
- This tool doesn't pull from Settings — win rate, risk:reward, and risk per trade always start at their defaults so you're testing a fresh scenario each time.
- Decimal places (Settings → Calculators) doesn't apply here — every figure is a percentage or a trade count, never a dollar amount.